The 22^nd World Cup has begun, but who would have imagined, at the beginning of this century, that this tournament might be hosted by the State of Qatar? Still, here we go, the only surprise is that it doesn't seem so surprising.

For much of my career, I've explored the connections between this beautiful game and the global economy. At Goldman Sachs, and before that at Bank of Switzerland, I launched my double obsession with overseeing special one-off publications for each of the World Cups from 1994 to 2010.

After one of them was published, I received personal letters from top central bankers around the world. Some of them told me it was the best publication we've produced, which was amusing and worth pondering, given how frequently we posted about economic events and markets. We persuaded national leaders and footballing bigwigs to write to us as guests, and on one occasion Alex Ferguson, the manager of the legendary Manchester United, chose the members of the best team in the world.

So far I have been able to attend six FIFA World Cups, hosted by the United States, France, South Korea, Japan, Germany, South Africa and Brazil, and through these experiences I can join those who describe the event as one of the most comprehensive and beautiful meetings Many different nationalities and cultures. The emergence of fan zones, which really took off after the 2006 World Cup in Germany, embodied this spirit, though I experienced it most powerfully in Seoul in 2002.

The link between football and the state of the global economy is evident in the selection of the host countries for the tournament, and I think it is an undeniable fact that FIFA (the International Federation of Football Associations) selected South Africa in 2010, Brazil in 2014, Russia in 2018, and now Qatar. Based on the steady rise of the so-called emerging economies during the first two decades of this century.

I've long thought that the other two BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) might join the small group of host nations in the future, but with many major nations turning inward in recent years, are the days of wanting to host the event come to an end? numbered? Are ambitious emerging market countries finding it increasingly difficult to successfully stage the world's most watched tournament? Or, conversely, will the world soon return to a more convincing, globalized, and inclusive international order? A deeper question may come to mind: Is FIFA a leading or lagging indicator of the world economy and the degree of globalization? I suspect how the competition plays out over the next four weeks, and more importantly how many people are watching the matches, is perhaps the clearest early sign of the broader importance of this year's World Cup.

This competition was the backbone of FIFA's revenue. There is already talk - perhaps driven by the desire of professional clubs to obtain stronger revenues - about turning the championship into an event that takes place every two years, or completing the current four-year formula with a competition between clubs that takes place every four years.

If the future of the global economy is very different from the last 20 or 30 years, this will be reflected in FIFA's decision-making process.

It is difficult to imagine FIFA being excited about holding future competitions in emerging market countries, if these countries contribute less to the growth of the global economy than the countries hosting the tournament since 2010.

In the 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, and 2011-2020 average global real GDP growth was 3.3%, 3.3%, 3.9%, and 3.7%, respectively. .

It is clear that the acceleration in the last two full decades has been due to stronger growth in the emerging world, coinciding with a period where FIFA began to select host nations from outside the traditional heartlands of football, and it now looks as though that trend may be reversed this decade, even though Eight years are still left of him. What about the winners this time? I have learned through the popularity of the posts I have produced in the past to refrain from going any further than predicting the four semi-finalists.

One reason for this is that the same realism with which one has to approach economic forecasts applies to the World Cup as well. Another reason is that the leaders of the countries we did not win were not well received.

I start here with the history. Only eight countries have won the FIFA World Cup. Brazil, who have won the cup five times, are always favourites, and this year's Brazil team appears to be one of the strongest in the tournament.

Argentina, Uruguay, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and England were the other previous winners. Even though Italy failed to qualify this time, the winning team is likely to come from one of these other countries.

One year England will win the tournament again, but it could easily be that the winning team is from one of the previous winning nations. Among the rest, Denmark, the Netherlands and Portugal usually punch above their economic and demographic weight. Whoever wins, I will be watching for all sorts of signs about the future - just as I always have.

Jim O'Neill, former British Chancellor of the Exchequer, is a member of the Pan-European Committee on Health and Sustainable Development.

*This article published in Oman newspaper on December 28, 2022